Each card below answers one question: could this area absorb another wash of this format? "Saturated" means existing washes already serve more demand than the area generates.
Observed demand absorption runs 2.33× modeled capacity in 75093 (2.71× in 75075); 12 tunnels ≤ 5 mi; zero remaining capacity in all 11 ring ZIPs; model NPV for a new build −$3.5M.
2.22× absorbed; 10 sites in 5 mi; demand concentrated in the Car Spa chain (corner + Coit ≈58% of radius full-service velocity; the corner store alone ≈34%).
3.12× absorbed; 8 aging, low-velocity sites across the ring.
The only format with modeled headroom (92nd pctile, saturation 0.09) — but ≈$140K/yr of modeled capacity revenue and a median NPV now ≈ breakeven; the ring's lone IBA is the incumbent's own fuel-island unit.
This is a superb retail corner in a wealthy, stable suburb — but the car-wash market around it is already overbuilt. A new express wash here would have to take customers away from a dozen established competitors, several of them national chains that are still adding locations nearby. The one distinctive asset at this exact corner is the existing wash: Car Spa is the busiest full-service wash in the area, charges less than the market supports, has signed up far fewer members than its peers — and its land was recently offered for sale. Everything below is the evidence behind those statements.
Park & Preston is one of the strongest retail corners in central Plano — a full 6×6 signalized crossing of two median-divided arterials carrying ~85,000 combined vehicles per day, ringed by four grocery- and lifestyle-anchored centers, in a trade area with a $121K median household income. Against that, every capacity measure available — the WashIndex model, entry-impact history, permit-level pipeline data, and industry saturation commentary — indicates the express-wash market surrounding the corner is fully built out, with additional supply in process (16 projects in the 10-mile permit sweep; two within 3 mi, including a Quick Quack opening ~Jan 2027). The corner’s wash demand is currently held by the incumbent, Car Spa #18 (wash + lube + inspection + fuel), whose real-estate interest has been separately marketed; its profile is documented in §2 and §8.
Read together: exceptional traffic and demographics — and a market already past full, with more supply under construction. The sections below document each number; the panel below defines the terms they use.
Four separate ways of measuring this market all say the same thing: the area around this corner already has more express-wash capacity than customer demand — by more than a factor of two. When a market is this saturated, a new wash doesn't find new customers; it fights established competitors for theirs. Here's each line of evidence:
Four independent lines of evidence converge on the same market condition for express-format supply:
Incumbent asset profile — Car Spa #18
The corner’s wash demand is concentrated at Car Spa #18 (4.5★, 685 reviews/12 mo — the two Car Spa sites hold ≈58% of full-service velocity within 5 mi, the corner store alone ≈34%), with revenue spread across wash, detail, 10-minute lube, state inspection, and a 24/7 Conoco fuel/c-store. Two facts stand out in the data: its five-tier unlimited program tops out at $34.99/mo against a $40 corridor median, and review-level membership lock-in is 3.2% versus 20–29% at comparable full-service peers — the membership program is under-indexed relative to its market. Separately, the pad’s leased-fee interest was marketed on Crexi as of Dec 2025 (NNN, 10% escalations every 5 years).
All four corners of this intersection are established, grocery-anchored shopping centers — Market Street, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, and HomeGoods are the anchors — and the southeast corner is halfway through a $35.6M facelift. The car wash at the corner, Car Spa, sits on its own parcel inside the Market Street center and is more than a wash: it also does oil changes, state inspections, and runs a Conoco gas station with a 24/7 convenience store. Its landlord listed the property for sale as an investment in late 2025. On the map below, the red pin is the corner, each dot is a wash (bigger = busier), and thicker gray lines are busier roads.
| Quadrant | Center | Anchors | Owner | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW | Plano Market Street (166,978 SF) | Market Street United (69,971 SF grocery) | Phillips Edison | Car Spa pad sits here; two in-line vacancies |
| NW | Preston Park Colonnade | Whole Foods, Barnes & Noble, Ross, Pottery Barn | W Incorporated (leasing) | 3 vacancies incl. 11,619 SF |
| SE | Preston Park Village (256,407 SF) | HomeGoods, Petco, Gap, Slick City | Brixmor | $35.6M redevelopment, phase completion 2026; proposed pad “OPO 1” |
| NE | Preston Towne Crossing | Trader Joe’s, REI, Old Navy, Ulta | EDENS | New restaurant pad approved Dec 2025 |
The incumbent, Car Spa #18 (5028 W Park Blvd, legacy address 1901 Preston Rd), is a full-service tunnel (Bronze→Diamond), interior +$30, express details $69.95–$149.95, oil change from $49.99 with free wash, Texas state inspection $18.50, plus Conoco fuel and a 24/7 c-store. Operator: Car Spa, Inc. — 15 locations in 4 states, 8 in Texas. Open and well-reviewed as of early July 2026; no sale or closure news found. The Google-listed “Conoco” in-bay wash 0.18 mi away is the same pad — the ring’s only IBA is Car Spa’s own fuel-island unit.
Access: both arterials are median-divided with dual left-turn bays, three through lanes, and a right-turn bay on every approach (Preston 45 mph, Park 40 mph). Pads work on right-in/right-out plus signal-protected movements; curb-cut and median-opening detail needs a Plano GIS or field check. Entitlement context: a senior-living amendment (Watermere, PD-189) was proposed in Sept 2025 for the SE quadrant area; outcome unverified.
| ZIP | Pop | Med HH inc | Med age | % ≥$100K | % ≥$200K | % 2+ veh | % own-occ | % bach+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75093 (site, W) | 46,491 | $121,226 | 43 | 58.3 | 30.0 | 62.6 | 59.7 | 70.3 |
| 75075 (site, E) | 38,041 | $91,517 | 40 | 46.6 | 15.6 | 60.2 | 58.9 | 50.0 |
| 75024 | 45,051 | $117,445 | 37 | 59.5 | 24.5 | 51.2 | 38.1 | 70.7 |
| 75025 | 53,352 | $135,398 | 40 | 64.5 | 31.0 | 67.7 | 67.0 | 66.6 |
| 75023 | 48,878 | $106,488 | 39 | 54.8 | 16.5 | 67.6 | 63.0 | 55.4 |
| 75248 | 37,644 | $103,063 | 40 | 51.4 | 23.5 | 58.0 | 53.8 | 65.3 |
| 75252 | 28,500 | $81,999 | 38 | 43.3 | 19.9 | 43.9 | 45.6 | 64.2 |
| 75287 | 52,727 | $62,538 | 33 | 27.5 | 8.2 | 36.7 | 23.1 | 46.3 |
ACS 5-year 2023. Percentages of households (income, vehicles, tenure) or adults 25+ (education).
The neighborhoods around this corner are wealthy, highly educated, own multiple cars, live in houses they own, and aren't moving — close to the ideal car-wash customer base, and one that supports premium monthly memberships. The catch is that this population isn't growing: Plano is built out and its school enrollment has been shrinking for over a decade. The growth here is in daytime traffic — office workers and big commercial projects — not in new households.
Mature-stable, aging, economically strengthening. Plano is ~95% built out and growing ~0.6%/yr (≈287K→295K since 2020; comp-plan ceiling ≈331K by 2050). Plano ISD enrollment has fallen every year since 2011-12 (55,659→~43,900; four schools closed) — the empty-nester signature. Against that: daytime demand is rising — AT&T’s $1.35B global HQ relocation to Legacy (announced Jan 2026, occupancy from 2H 2028) joins Toyota NA and JPMorgan’s 11,000-employee campus; and two nine-figure projects are underway within ~3 mi of the corner on Park Blvd’s axis: The Bend (Willow Bend redevelopment with a proposed Dallas Stars arena; council LOI Jun 8, 2026) and Haggard Farm ($750M, vertical 2026). Home-price index: +8.7%/yr 5-yr CAGR in 75093, now −1.8% YoY — cooled, not falling.
About 55,000 vehicles pass this corner on Preston Rd on an average day, plus ~30,000 on Park Blvd — roughly triple the traffic that site-selection guides consider the minimum for a car wash. Traffic is not this site's problem; competition is. One practical wrinkle: the city is rebuilding Park Blvd's pavement on the site's frontage through late 2027, which means periodic lane closures right where customers would turn in.
| Location | 2025 AADT | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Preston Rd at Park Blvd (43H138) | 55,061 | peak segment of the corridor — 49.4K two mi north, 47.2K three mi south |
| Park Blvd 1.0 mi W (43U825A) | 30,608 | flat vs 2019/2022; −8% vs 2014 |
| Park Blvd 1.4 mi E at Coit (43HP5131) | 25,720 | slightly declining |
| Combined intersection exposure | ~81–86K | matches the SW center’s “79,700+ VPD” marketing |
Frontage construction window
Park Blvd from Preston to Independence gets $3.19M of arterial concrete repair, Jun 2026 → Oct 2027 (the site’s frontage), and the west leg gets an asphalt overlay summer–fall 2026 — intermittent lane closures on the frontage through late 2027. No widening projects exist on either road through 2028; both are at ultimate build-out, and TxDOT work on Preston through Plano is resurfacing-grade.
Context for the traffic number: at the verified capture band for >60K-VPD corridors (0.4–0.7% of AADT), a tunnel here would imply ~340–600 washes/day in an uncontested market. This radius is contested by twelve tunnels; the capacity model indicates that volume already exists at incumbents (§7). High traffic raises the ceiling; the saturation data bears on the floor.
North Texas weather is good for the wash business: enough rain to dirty cars regularly (38.6 inches a year), almost no snow (~1 day a year, and no road salt), and winters mild enough (typical lows around 35°F) that the season never really closes. Demand pulses after rain rather than shutting down for a winter — and unlimited-membership plans exist partly to smooth exactly that variance, consistent with the corridor supporting ≈$40/month top-tier pricing. Water supply is not a constraint here (§10).
Climate figures from the WashIndex climate layer at the site coordinates (LOCAL 14): 38.6 in annual precipitation · ~1 snow day/yr · winter min ≈35°F · non-salt-belt.
Within a short drive of this corner there are already 31 car washes — a dozen of them drive-through express tunnels, the format that dominates the industry today. The busiest are run by chains (WhiteWater, Take 5, Tommy's). The corner's own Car Spa is the busiest full-service wash in the area. The newest express wash (Quick N Clean, opened late 2024) is still growing fast, which shows how new openings pull customers from everyone else. And the permit records show two more washes under construction nearby — including one by Quick Quack, a large national chain. In the chart below, each dot is a wash: farther right = farther from the corner; higher up = busier (measured by how fast it collects Google reviews).
| Format | 0–1 mi | 1–2 mi | 2–3 mi | 3–5 mi | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Express tunnel | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 |
| In-bay automatic | 1* | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Self-serve | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Full service | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
* the lone IBA is Car Spa’s own fuel-island wash. ZIP 75093 itself contains no express tunnel — all twelve ring it from adjacent ZIPs; the saturation radius already counts them.
Momentum (annual review counts 2024 → 2025 → 2026 through Jul 3): growing — Quick N Clean (ex-Mi-T-Fine conversion at 6312 Preston, 26→303→604 and still accelerating), Car Spa corner (325→281→519), Car Spa Coit. Steady — WhiteWater (619→653→459 YTD), Carnation, Tommy Terrific’s. Recovering from a 2025 dip — WASHGUYS (235→96→132 YTD). Fading — Soapy Jeff’s, Spiffy (3.5★), all self-serves. Note: the Jul 20 review reload also captured review histories more completely than the Jul 11 vintage, so velocity levels here are not comparable with the prior edition of this report; the year-to-year comparisons within this paragraph come from a single consistent scrape.
Pipeline — permit-level sweep (TDLR TABS + city records, Jul 11, 2026)
A full sweep of TDLR project registrations (every Texas commercial project >$50K must file) plus Plano’s development review list and neighboring-city P&Z records found 16 car-wash projects within ~10 mi since 2024 — two inside 3 mi of the corner. All Plano projects proceed by right through site-plan review. Zero new filings in the north-Dallas ZIPs (75248/75252/75287), Addison, or Frisco.
| Mi | Location | Operator | Status | ID |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.48 | 4001 W Spring Creek Pkwy (Coit & Spring Creek), Plano | Quick Quack (national chain) | Under construction May 2026 → Jan 2027; P&Z item Jul 20, 2026 · $1.0M, 3,166 SF, 1.7 ac | TABS2026011229 |
| 2.72 | 2824 Regal Rd, Plano | Unnamed (Bahar Inc; existing wash site) | Redevelopment filed May 2025; P&Z Aug 3, 2026 | PSP2025-013 |
| 5.30 | 625 Central Expy, Plano | Victron Group (Wash Masters) | Landscape plan in review, Feb 2026 · 1.1 ac | LP2026-004 |
| ~5.4 | SEC SH-121 & Rasor, Plano | Victron (c-store + fuel + wash) | P&Z approved Oct 2025; LP filed Feb 2026 · 5.1 ac | PSP2025-018 |
| 5.57 | 2195 K Ave, Plano | Blast Carwash (Kiya Ent.) | Construction Jul–Oct 2026 (ex-WashWash site) | TABS2026022817 |
| ~6.0 | Ridgeview Dr, Plano 75024 | Super Star Car Wash (national chain) | Under construction → Sep 2026 · $1.2M, 5,000 SF | TABS2025022863 |
| 6–8 | Richardson / Allen / Carrollton ring | Vibe (open ’25), Slyde’s (open May ’26), Feel Great (open May ’25), Lopez conversion (→Jan ’27), ClearWater Express (→Feb ’27), Ben’s (→Aug ’26) | 1 pending special permit (Richardson, Jun 16, 2026); rest open or under construction | see memo |
Full detail incl. method notes: web/tdlr_permits.md. DFW chain-level context is consolidation: ZIPS Ch. 11 (2025), Links←Slappy’s (Dec 2025), Raceway entering via acquisition; earlier, Caliber←Q (Jun 2022). Wash Masters — the ring’s highest-rated operator (4.9★) — is expanding with two Plano projects.
Lock-in — what the pricing chart means: in this market, roughly $40/month buys the best unlimited plan. Car Spa charges less than that ($34.99) for a more labor-intensive product, and far fewer of its customers are members than at comparable washes — most pay per visit. In an industry where the big chains earn 40–75% of revenue from members who almost never cancel (~90% renewal intent, ICA Q1-26), that is the clearest under-used lever in the ring. The numbers: review-level membership lock runs ~5–29% across the ring’s expresses (median ≈11%); Car Spa sits at 3.2% against Carnation’s 29.1% and WASHGUYS’ 20.7%. Voice of customer: WhiteWater’s review tags are amenity-led (vacuums, towels); Car Spa’s are service-led (“job” ×56, “manager” ×53, “detailing” ×34 — staff praised by name in recent reviews); Clean Freak — the nearest express — shows early equipment-maintenance complaints.
We used AI to read every Google review of every wash in the area (11,500+ reviews) and counted how often customers claim the wash damaged their car — scratches, broken mirrors, paint. A few things to know when reading the table: full-service and hand-wash shops naturally score worse because staff physically handle the car; big express chains score best because the customer never leaves the driver's seat. "Resolved" only counts cases where the customer's review says the business made it right, so it understates real resolution rates. The takeaways: the corner's Car Spa has one of the lowest damage rates of any full-service wash here — a good operational sign — while Take 5 stands out for complaints about canceling memberships, a known industry sore spot.
From 11,569 LLM-analyzed reviews across the ring’s active washes: damage-claim mentions per 1,000 analyzed reviews, whether the business’s resolution was acknowledged in the review, plus membership-cancellation and upsell-pressure complaints.
| Operator (≥100 analyzed reviews) | Mi | Analyzed | Damage claims | Per 1,000 | Resolved-ack’d | Cancel complaints | Upsell pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Terrific’s (FS/hand) | 1.87 | 285 | 19 | 66.7 | 16% | 4 | 3 |
| Blue Shark (ET) | 4.92 | 354 | 10 | 28.2 | 0% | 5 | 8 |
| Super Star (ET) | 4.17 | 441 | 11 | 24.9 | 9% | 14 | 10 |
| Tommy’s Express (ET) | 4.35 | 439 | 10 | 22.8 | 0% | 5 | 1 |
| Soapy Jeff’s II (FS) | 4.62 | 105 | 2 | 19.0 | 0% | 1 | 3 |
| Car Spa — Coit (FS) | 2.60 | 602 | 9 | 15.0 | 11% | 1 | 0 |
| Take 5 (ET) | 3.91 | 881 | 13 | 14.8 | 0% | 24 | 13 |
| Carnation (FS) | 2.58 | 723 | 10 | 13.8 | 20% | 15 | 10 |
| WASHGUYS (FS) | 2.12 | 362 | 4 | 11.0 | 0% | 8 | 4 |
| Wash Masters (ET) | 3.98 | 1,013 | 10 | 9.9 | 30% | 16 | 7 |
| Quick N Clean (ET) | 2.23 | 670 | 6 | 9.0 | 0% | 7 | 8 |
| Car Spa #18 — corner (FS) | 0.20 | 857 | 7 | 8.2 | 0% | 2 | 5 |
| Captain (ET) | 4.70 | 130 | 1 | 7.7 | 0% | 4 | 1 |
| WhiteWater — Custer (ET) | 2.12 | 1,300 | 7 | 5.4 | 0% | 9 | 5 |
| WhiteWater — Coit (ET) | 3.65 | 987 | 3 | 3.0 | 0% | 8 | 2 |
| Trademark (ET) | 4.91 | 1,811 | 5 | 2.8 | 0% | 10 | 3 |
Readings: the corner incumbent’s damage rate (8.2/1,000) sits at the low end for a full-service operation — roughly half the rate of the other full-service peers and an order of magnitude below Tommy Terrific’s hand-wash operation (66.7/1,000). Big express chains run 3–5/1,000 (less vehicle handling). Of ~140 claims ring-wide: scratches 39, mirrors 17, paint 13, interior 9 (52 untyped). Take 5 shows the ring’s highest membership-cancellation complaint count (24) — consistent with industry-wide friction around unlimited-plan cancellation. Resolution acknowledgment is rare everywhere (0–30%), so insurance posture and claims process are open diligence items for any operator review (§12).
Think of market capacity like seats in a restaurant district. The WashIndex model estimates how many "diners" (washes per year) this area generates from its people, cars, traffic, and weather — that's capacity. Then it counts how much business existing washes are actually doing — that's observed demand. Around this corner, express washes are already serving more than two customers for every one the area generates on its own (saturation 2.33×) — meaning operators are competing hard for the same drivers, and there is no untapped demand left (remaining capacity: zero) in any nearby ZIP. The one exception is the small gas-station-style in-bay format: it has almost no supply here (saturation 0.09×, ranking near the top of all US ZIPs for unserved capacity), but the entire untapped market is worth only about $140K/yr — a niche, not an opportunity at investment scale. A subtlety: those two in-bay numbers describe the same fact from opposite ends — hardly any of the capacity is being used, so nearly all of it remains.
| ZIP / format | Score pctile | Capacity pctile | Saturation | Remaining velocity | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75093 Express | 70.0 | 1 | 2.33× | 0 | A |
| 75075 Express | 45.6 | 1 | 2.71× | 0 | B |
| 75093 Full service | 92.5 | 1 | 2.22× | 0 | A |
| 75075 Full service | 27.5 | 1 | 2.00× | 0 | A |
| 75093 In-bay automatic | 92.1 | 95.8 | 0.09× | 52 | B |
| 75075 In-bay automatic | 91.5 | 97.1 | 0.03× | 60 | B |
| 75093 Self-serve | 95.4 | 1 | 3.12× | 0 | B |
Cannibalization component 0.72 for 75093 express: a new site’s modeled capture is sourced overwhelmingly from incumbents. The empirical record is consistent — past entries in the 75075 radius coincided with suppressed incumbent velocity (mean log-ratio −0.25, n=7 pairs); the only positive nearby signal is 75248 (+1.45, n=3), south toward Dallas. In short: both the model and what actually happened after past openings say a new wash’s customers here would come almost entirely out of competitors’ existing business. Model caveats: velocity is a review-derived proxy; radius-vs-ZIP boundary effects cut both ways; formats are modeled separately (tunnel base tiers partly absorb IBA demand).
The model prices what a newly built wash of each format could earn here, then judges it like an investor would: NPV (do lifetime profits exceed the build cost?), IRR (what annual return does that imply?), and payback (how many years to break even?). For express, full-service, and self-serve the answer is that a new build never recovers its cost — because the untapped demand it would need to sell to doesn't exist. The small in-bay format is the only one that comes close: after the July recompute its median case lands at roughly breakeven, turning clearly positive only under premium pricing assumptions — and only at its tiny (~$140K/yr) scale. The interactive calculator below lets you test this yourself: plug in your own assumptions for members, prices, and costs and watch the returns move. Even at typical industry assumptions, a new express wash here needs roughly 3,000 monthly members to work — and those members currently belong to competitors.
| Format (75093, new build) | Model capex | Capacity $ P50 | NPV median | IRR median | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Express tunnel | $3.5M | $0 | −$3.5M | — | never |
| Full service | $2.5M | $0 | −$2.5M | — | never |
| In-bay automatic | $0.5M | $140K | −$0.03M (premium +$0.28M) | 8.6% (prem 23.7%) | 6.7 yr (4.3) |
| Self-serve | $1.5M | $0 | −$1.5M | — | never |
Verified 2025–26 benchmarks (for cross-check): mature express revenue $1.5–3.0M/yr; four-wall EBITDA 35–50% (broker “adjusted” 45–67%); ~3,000 members @ ~$30 ARPU at maturity; churn 7.6%/mo; build cost $2.6–6.9M (base $4.8M, trending $4–8M); net-lease exits ~6.2–6.3% cap. The internal chain benchmark table implies $6.6–10M/site revenue — inconsistent with verified medians; used for member-share direction only. In short: a healthy express wash earns $1.5–3M a year at strong margins, but building one now costs $4–8M — the economics only work where unserved demand exists to fill it.
Simplified single-site express pro forma: revenue ramps 50% → 80% → 100% over three years; exit value = multiple × stabilized EBITDA at year 10. Defaults reflect industry medians against this site’s 55,061 AADT. This is an assumption-testing tool, not a forecast — the WashIndex capacity model’s median case for a new express in this radius corresponds to $0 of available capacity revenue, i.e., volumes below would need to be captured from incumbents.
Incumbent financial screen — Car Spa #18 (observations)
Put simply: the corner’s existing wash is a busy, multi-line business that prices below what its market supports, has barely developed the industry’s most valuable revenue stream (memberships), and sits on land its owner has offered for sale. The specifics: revenue is diversified across wash/detail/lube/inspection/fuel; 685 reviews/12 mo supports a low-seven-figure wash-segment revenue screen (full-service format; seller P&L required for anything firmer). Observations relevant to valuation: top unlimited tier priced $34.99 vs the $40 corridor median; review-level lock-in 3.2% vs 20–29% at full-service peers (Carnation, WASHGUYS demonstrate the demographic joins membership programs); damage-claim rate at the low end for its format (8.2/1,000, §6); the pad’s fee interest marketed separately (Crexi, Dec 2025, NNN with 10%/5-yr escalations); single-site transactions in the current market price around 5–7× EBITDA, with the seller a 15-unit regional chain in a consolidating market.
Retail real estate here is expensive and nearly full — DFW shopping centers are at record occupancy, and Collin County has been raising commercial property valuations by double digits two years running (which flows straight into a tenant's tax bill). Land along Preston runs roughly $12–20 per square foot away from the corners, more at a corner like this one. Building a new express wash costs $2.6–7M all-in. When finished washes are sold to real-estate investors, they trade at roughly 16× their annual rent (a ~6.2% cap rate).
Plano is an easy place to operate a car wash: no special permit is required in most commercial zones (just standard site-plan review), water is cheap (~$0.41 per car) and plentiful, and during droughts the rules actually ban washing cars in driveways while letting commercial washes stay open. The flip side of "easy to build" is that it's easy for competitors to build too — and a new Texas law prevents cities from freezing new construction for more than about six months. The main site-specific requirements are cosmetic (extra landscaping and small monument signs along Preston Rd) and locational (no car wash within 150 feet of homes).
| # | Risk | Sev | Likelihood | Evidence | Consideration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Express overbuild / share competition | H | In progress | Sat 2.3×; ICA #1 concern; DFW named oversupplied; ZIPS Ch. 11 | Exposure applies chiefly to new supply; incumbent demand is installed |
| 2 | Membership lock forecloses switchers | H | High | 40–75% of chain revenue member-locked; 90% renewal intent | Bears on any entrant’s capture assumptions (§8 model) |
| 3 | New supply pipeline — by-right entitlement | H | Certain | 16 projects in the 10-mi permit sweep; Quick Quack (2.48 mi) and Super Star (~6 mi) under construction; HB 2559 blocks moratoria | Underwriting should assume additional supply arrives |
| 4 | Frontage construction | M | Certain | Park Blvd concrete repair Jun 2026–Oct 2027 on the site’s frontage | Any transaction or opening timeline overlaps the construction window |
| 5 | Weak-incumbent shakeout pressures pricing | M | Medium | Spiffy 3.5★ fading (9 revs/12 mo); WASHGUYS still below its 2024 pace; Clean Freak intro pricing | Distressed-asset conditions may develop in the ring |
| 6 | Aging suburb, falling family counts | M | Slow | Plano ISD −21% from peak; median age 43 | Partially offset by daytime-population growth (AT&T HQ, The Bend) |
| 7 | Property-tax escalation on NNN economics | M | High | Collin commercial roll +14.8% / +13.8% two years running | Tax growth compounds inside any NNN underwriting |
| 8 | Water-cost trajectory | L | High | NTMWD +7.5% FY26, more planned | ≈$0.41/car today; reclaim systems trim exposure |
| 9 | Review-proxy methodology | L | — | §07 caveats | Cross-checked against 4 independent signals |
reports/2026-07-11_plano-park-preston/data; Jul 20 refresh pack: reports/2026-07-20_plano-park-preston/data). Web: nine fact-checked research memos with adversarial verification (…/web) — TxDOT ArcGIS annuals, City of Plano ordinances & CIP, TDLR filings, NTMWD/TWDB, Brixmor/PECO/EDENS leasing materials, Rinsed, ICA, MMCG, Car Wash Advisory, B+E/Northmarq, Community Impact. Saturation = observed radius review-velocity ÷ modeled capacity; review velocity is a demand proxy, not revenue. Initial extraction used a point 0.3 mi south of the true intersection; the pack was re-run at the verified coordinates. Fact-check: 48 key web claims adversarially verified — 43 confirmed, 2 plausible, 3 refuted and corrected in this report (The Bend vote date; Caliber←Q deal year; the pipeline “zero” claim — superseded by the Quick Quack identification).